#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Very quickly on the CLARITY Act: September 15 concerns a 60-vote procedural hurdle to advance consideration, not final approval of the law. Overall, we need 60 votes to pass, and if we pass its bullish, if it gets rejected it means there will be further negotiations, but overall I am betting that the clarity act is going to be signed by Trump by end of Year. I consider progress toward a workable framework bullish, but do not confuse opening the door with finishing the process. In total we are at step two out of three. Meanwhile, the institutional developments continue. Nasdaq announced an agreement to invest $100 million in Payward, Kraken’s parent company, as the companies advance their tokenized-stocks. Circle has also announced September 16 as the planned public mainnet launch for Arc, with BlackRock, DTCC, Visa and Mastercard among its founding validators. My Galactic Three, Circle, Coinbase and Ethereum, represent different investments within the same broader thesis: I believe the development of digital FINANCE infrastructure creates a much larger opportunity than trading the first reaction to a headline.
Now look at the chart, because many are talking about the MA50 Weekly as if it is a resistance that Bitcoin cannot break. Yet they forget to study the previous recovery. The left chart shows the current setup, the right chart shows early 2023. Look at the green arrows on the right and how many attempts happened around the moving average before the decisive breakout. Just have a look at both charts, Bitcoin did not simply arrive at the MA50 Weekly and move straight through it.
A resistance doing its job today does not mean it will control the market forever. That is the point of this comparison. It is not a promise that every candle from 2023 must repeat, and it does not tell us whether another correction comes first. It shows why treating every rejection as the end of the entire recovery is a mistake. And this connects directly to what I wrote last Sunday. $78,500 had broken as resistance, but I explicitly said that I had NOT confirmed it as support. $71,000 remained my strongest support reference, while $82,500 needed to break before the next target of $88,000. I also explained that this could take time. So anyone expecting an immediate, uninterrupted breakout was getting ahead of the chart. Expecting resistance to break eventually is not the same as expecting every attempt to succeed. Bitcoin first needs to reclaim the MA50 Weekly and establish strength above it. Then the $82,500–$83,000 region remains the major breakout area in my framework, where I expect the bull market to start, and the path toward $88K to open. I remain bullish, but I am not going to call a breakout confirmed while the resistance is still standing, and the lowest it could go to is $71,000 as mentioned in my previous reports, and overall the market remains very bullish and I am expecting a breakout above the Weekly MA50.
Now the difficult question: will we see a similar sequence to 2023, with a deeper pullback first and then the breakout? Could Bitcoin revisit $71K before recovering toward $88K? Or do we move higher without giving us that lower entry? Both routes remain possible, and my strategy does not depend on guessing the next smaller move correctly. A pullback toward $71K followed by a recovery would fit my support framework, but I am not saying that visit must happen. My focus remains the larger move toward $88K and higher afterward, which is why I keep holding my spot positions while adding long orders at $71K in case the market allows us to visit.
Finally, the FED decision is Wednesday, September 16, following the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market expects, 85.5% probability of a quarter-point hike, 14.5% of unchanged rates and effectively 0% assigned to a cut. For Bitcoin, my approach remains unchanged and most of events are now priced in, and if you ask about my personal opinion, I think the FED should not change anything, but keeping the rates as they are. Holding the spot positions, keep the conditional long orders at $71K, and watch for the MA50 Weekly reclaim followed by the breakout through roughly $83K. $88K remains my next larger target after those hurdles, not a deadline for this week.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
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